With the state working to expand its landmark energy and climate efforts beyond 2020 and considering a policy to cut oil use by 50 percent by 2030, understanding the successes and challenges of California’s current innovative policies to address driving, fuels and our growth patterns is critical.
Our state’s progress in creating a lower-emission, cost-effective transportation sector is of keen interest not only to California, but also to governments around the world looking to replicate our achievements.
A new analysis commissioned by Next 10 and authored by the Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy at UC Davis finds that these and other landmark transportation policies are technologically feasible, cost-effective and on track to help the state achieve emission-reduction goals.
The analysis further finds that although challenges and market barriers remain, they can be overcome, and generally, the state’s policies and incentives provide a strong framework for managing our transition to a low-carbon future.
This portfolio approach to policy is indeed the kind of innovation at which California excels — and serves as a model for other states and nations to follow. Harmonization with other states and nations as they adopt like-minded policies will serve to benefit all those committed to reducing GHG emissions.
The Golden State’s suite of policies provides an ambitious and necessary framework for reinventing vehicles, fuels and mobility, though the system does require wise oversight to make sure implementation is consistent and synergistic.
The study finds that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard program, which requires reductions in the carbon intensity of fuels and is up for re-adoption next month, is motivating investments in a range of new low-carbon fuels. Related emissions reductions from this policy thus far are limited, but promising.
The expansion of such programs to other states is projected to increase the development and deployment of low-carbon fuels available, which will help us meet future goals in California.
New cars and light trucks are on track to cut their fuel consumption in half between 2010 and 2025 —mostly because of a national 54.5 mpg fuel economy standard, which was motivated by California’s vehicle GHG standards.
To date, the auto industry has largely accepted the standard, investing billions of dollars in lightweight materials, hybridization of powertrains and a vast array of innovations in engines, transmissions and auxiliary equipment on the vehicle. Consumers, in the meantime, have responded by purchasing ever more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Still another policy, the SB 375 Sustainable Communities Act of 2008, aims to reduce vehicle use and therefore GHG reductions, through smart growth strategies. Actual reductions are modest, but again, the analysis finds the policy is providing a framework for continuing reductions. And with an assurance to cities and counties that resources are available to fully implement the program, more localities may realize greater reductions.
The state’s Carbon Cap-and-Trade Program — extended to transportation fuels in January — for the first time places a price on transportation fuels in California. The policy has impacted gasoline prices by about 11 cents a gallon. It is expected to drive the reduction of more than 3.5 million metric tons of CO2e per year, which is roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of more than half a million passenger cars.
California is harvesting the low-hanging fruit as it continues efforts to meet state and potential future global goals. Refinements, complements and updates will be needed to achieve a cost-effective and politically acceptable path to a low-carbon future, but we are securely on the right path.
— F. Noel Perry is a businessman and founder of the nonpartisan nonprofit research organization Next 10. Gustavo Collantes is assistant director of the Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy at UC Davis.