Keeping the waiver intact is critical for California, said Noel Perry, founder of Next 10, a San Francisco think tank. The transportation sector accounts for 38% of the state's emissions and is a key reason the state is having difficulty meeting its 2030 climate target, even as California electric vehicle sales reached 25% of the total market in 2024, Perry said in an interview.
"California will fight tooth and nail if the Trump administration is going to again attempt to take that waiver away," Perry said.
Despite its long-standing climate efforts, California is not on track to meet its 2030 goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions 40% below 1990 levels, according to the latest edition of Next 10's California Green Innovation Index.
A lot is at stake also for the 11 states that have adopted the latest round of California's clean car standards, along with the District of Columbia. Transportation is the largest US source of greenhouse gas emissions.