California has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions far beyond the record low seen during the pandemic, but new data shows this goal will prove challenging amid an emissions upswing following the lifting of lockdown restrictions. A staggering increase in power sector emissions, particularly from in-state generation, in recent years is offsetting progress made in the transportation sector, and threatening the state's goals overall, according to the 15th annual California Green Innovation Index, released today by the nonpartisan nonprofit Next 10 and prepared by Beacon Economics.
California has worked hard to decouple its economy from the burning of fossil fuels, resulting in some of the lowest per-capita emissions in the United States, but annual greenhouse gas jumped 3.4% in 2021, a rebound following the pandemic, according to the latest data from the California Air Resources Board (CARB). A preliminary estimate from the agency shows the state’s emissions started trending downward again in 2022, but the 2021 emissions remained 121.3 MMTCO2e above the 2030 target of nearly 260 MMTCO2e.
“The increase in emissions following the pandemic makes it all the more difficult for California to meet its climate goals on time,” said F. Noel Perry, Founder of Next 10. “In fact, we may be further behind than many people realize. If you look at the trajectory since 2010, California won’t meet our 2030 climate goal until 2047. We need to triple the rate of decarbonization progress each year to hit that target.”
Efforts to promote renewable power as well as zero-emission buildings and vehicles will have to dramatically accelerate in order to achieve the state’s goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, according to the new report. To meet that benchmark, California would need to triple the rate of emissions cuts we’ve made since 2010—going from the actual average annual reduction of about 1.5% a year to about 4.6% a year, according to an analysis of CARB data by Beacon Economics. That percentage could be even higher as emissions data for 2023 isn’t available yet.
But it’s not all bad news. California’s economy is getting significantly cleaner. Among the 50 states, only New York and Massachusetts have lower per-capita emissions compared to California, and the carbon intensity of the state’s economy (emissions compared to gross domestic product) has been cut in half over the last two decades.
Emissions from the transportation sector—which accounts for nearly 40% of the state’s carbon footprint—increased by 7.4% from 2020 to 2021 following the easing of pandemic travel restrictions. But overall, greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars, heavy-duty trucks, and other vehicles were more than 10% lower in 2021 compared to 2019. This shows the state is making considerable progress cutting its largest source of pollution. Emissions from heavy-duty vehicles have consistently decreased every year since 2018, resulting in a 14.1% reduction in 2021 compared to that year.